Sunday, March 25, 2007

Could Miliband beat Brown?

I think he could - if and obviously only if he has the guts to stand. I will admit that I have a vested interest in this as I placed a bet of £20 at odds of about 11.5 to 1 on Betfair some time ago. Is it possible that I could make money on all three leadership elections since the last general election? I had a bet on Cameron very soon after polling day and made over £100. I made some poor choices on the Lib Dem leadership election but once it became clear which way the wind was blowing I was able to turn a potential £25 loss into a £9 gain.

So will Miliband run or not? According to this piece in this mornings Observer he could be persuaded to run by Tony Blair. I cannot see what the downside would be for him running. He may feel that he has an agreement with Brown but if he has ambitions of his own then he may be far better to run now. If he fails to run and Brown becomes Prime Minister and loses the subsequent General Election, Labour could be out of power for a decade or more and Milibands chance could have gone forever. If he runs I think he has a good chance of winning particularly given Browns poll ratings head to head with Cameron and even if he does not win I think he will make a good showing and Brown will not be able to exclude him from the Cabinet which is where he is now!

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