3rd Army send battalion to Bangkok

According to the Bangkok Post here the Third Army sent a battalion of troops to Bangkok last night following fears that Thaksin Shinawatra was about to return, There are also protests about the the election of Meechai Ruchupan as the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) President as he is seen as being loyal to Thaksin. Apparently a further four battalions were on their way as well.

Rumours indicate that Thaksin Shinawatra may have left London for Singapore and the authorities are worried that he may attempt to sneak back into the country possibly via the Southern border with Malaysia. Given his previous record on dealing with the insurgency in the South this seems an unlikely route to me.

Meanwhile The Nation reports here on activity within Thaksin Shinawatras former ruling party Thai Rak Thai. After a series of resignations a couple of weeks ago Thai Rak Thai now has a new interim leader in Chaturon Chaisang. Thai Rak Thai also announced it was forming a working group to investigate the government, the Council of National Security (CNS) and the National Legislative Assembly (NLA). They also went on to says that"as the NLA was not democratic because it had no opposition in the House, the Thai Rak Thai working group could act as an opposition outside of Parliament."

This may be part of what is worrying the coup leaders. They have control of the reins of power at present but were Thaksin Shinawatra to return and were there to be an uprising supported by elements of the military which are loyal to Thaksin then the coup leaders may find themselves being investigated instead of being the ones doing the investigating as at present.

There fears may have been exacerbated by a special report in The Nation here about what Thaksin Shinawatra may be doing to facilitate a to return to power. The report essentially says that "although Thaksin has resigned as leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party, the move was to withdraw to regain control". His tactic is to avoid a criminal offence in case the Constitution Tribunal dissolves the party, as a criminal offence cannot be prosecuted retroactively. He accepts that the party needs a new face as it leader and is concentrating on trying to protect his assets from being impounded by the Asset Examination Committee.

The report goes on to say that he has "mobilised at least 300 party members in each province to do underground work. They distributed a cartoon book that tells of Thaksin's life to seek sympathy from the grassroots. He is also trying his best to ensure the Thai public does not lose interest in him. If the Thai Rak Thai Party is dissolved, that would not mean Thaksin's dream to return to power would end. He has been seeking a way to survive. Approaches have been made to politicians such as Somsak Thepsuthin, who led his faction to quit Thai Rak Thai to establish a new party. "

His strategy according to this report is to protect his assets and promote political heirs either within Thai Rak Thai or through a new party. Once the heir has regained political power he can regain full control of his assets and possibly take revenge on those who brought about his downfall.

Whether or not these report have any basis to them I do not know but their publication must be adding to the nervousness amongst the coup leaders.

Google launch bespoke search engine

According to this article from the BBC Google have launched a bespoke search engine service which can be included on people's websites or blogs. The actual Google site for this can be found here. According to Google you can :

• Place a search box and search results on your website.
• Specify or prioritize the sites you want to include in searches.
• Customize the look and feel to match your website.
• Invite your community to contribute to the search engine.

I will have a play with this later and see how it works.

4 managers in a month

Kevin Blackwell departed at the end of September and John Carver took over. On Monday John Carver too departed and David Geddis was appointed for last nights game against Southend. Yesterday Dennis Wise and his assistant Gus Poyet were confirmed as the new management team. They were at Elland Road last night to watch Leeds take on Southend in the Carling Cup.

The two of them walked around the ground before kick off and were given a far better reception by the Leeds fans than I feared. WACCOE had a poll running on how people felt about the appointment of Dennis Wise and approximately 70% were delighted or pleased when I voted last night.

The opening half in particular will have shown Wise and Poyet just how much work needs to be done as Leeds lost 3-1. In particular some serious work needs to be done on a very leaky defence. They face Southend again on Saturday

If anyone wants the Dennis Wise autobiography then click here

Tranquility

Fascinating report from the CPRE which can be found here about tranquility in the UK or perhaps more accurately the lack of tranquilty.

The two images shown above represent the South East and the South West of the UK and show very contrasting pictures in terms of the amount of peace and quiet we are likely to find in these two areas. It is interesting to see the relative tranquility of whole areas of the North and North West as well. This ties in well with the recent concerns I expressed about the north / south divide here

Of course I suspect that there are many in the North, North West and South West of the country who are only to glad to see the rest of us trying deparately to cram more and more into the South East!

Regional tranquility maps can be found here

Leeds in talks with Dennis Wise

According to the BBC here Leeds are in talks with Dennis Wise with regard to the managers job and compensation which would be due to Swindon. He has always been in the frame ever since the beginning of the season because of his connections with Bates and I am glad to see that Ken Bates has taken on board my plea yesterday to sort out the situation!

I am not convinced that this is the best appointment for the long term future of Leeds United but on the other hand the job is such a poisoned chalice at the moment that I am not sure who would want the job at least not on the sort of money we are probably offering.

I do not take the view that he should be opposed just because he played for Chelsea. If he is to be the new Leeds manager then the fans need to get behind him and give him a chance to prove what he can do. At least he has some understanding from his days at Wimbledon of the need for team spirit and working together - if he can communicate that to the players then that alone may see some improvement in our performance. Surely it cannot get any worse.

Update : Swindon have refused Leeds permission to continue talks as agreement cannot be reached on compensation

Further Update : Agreement has been reached and talks with Dennis Wise and his assistant Gus Poyet are continuing

Next Update : John Carver has left Leeds United and David Geddis is expected to take charge of tomorrows Carling Cup tie against Southend.

12 months to go

So the UK is not going to throw in the towel in Iraq and we are not going to set a deadline for withdrawal so thats ok then. I am not sure what this piece in the Guardian is referring to then.

The piece certainly gives the impression that the UK is at least setting an unofficial deadline for withdrawal. Kim Howells said "I would have thought that certainly in a year or so there will be adequately trained Iraqi soldiers and security forces - policemen and women and so on - in order to do the job."

He may genuinely think that but I would suggest that three years down the road there is precious little evidence that the Iraqi security forces are efficient enough, effective enough, numerous enough and determined enough to bring order, stability and security to a country that is effectively in the middle of a civil war.

The Americans too seem to be singing from the same song sheet according to this piece in the Guardian The article says "the Bush administration, alarmed by the increasing violence and lawlessness gripping much of Iraq, has decided to force the hand of the embattled prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. It will push him to agree to a timetable of specific measures aimed at disarming the militias, halting sectarian violence, and shouldering more responsibility for the country's security." In other words sort things out and take responsibility for your own security so we can leave.

Whatever happens with British and American troops and their timetable (or not) for withdrawal I think it is inevitable that the final solution for Iraq will involve the Balkanisation of the country. Sooner or later Iraq will split into a number of smaller states most probably three. It seems probable that there is nothing now that the coalition forces or internal Iraqi security forces can do to prevent that. I hope I am wrong and that some miracle occurs and order is re-established as soon as possible. But it does not seem likely.

4-0 to the Arsenal

And quite frankly it could easily have been double that and the result would not have been unfair to Reading. Arsenal are simply the best team to have graced the Madejski Stadium so far. Reading battled and fought until the end although perhaps not with the same vigour as they did against Manchester United and Chelsea. Hopefully it wasn't a result of last weeks events but there was just the smallest tendancy for some Reading players to back off from making challenges. Thierry Henry and Fabregas were noticeable beneficiaries of this and Reading paid the price. The Guardians report of the game can be found here.

Bates please act

Leeds United are in free fall at present. Blackwell had clearly lost the dressing room and had to go. Good decision. Then John Carver is given a go. Fair Decision. It seems reasonable to let someone who knows the players and who was the assistant manager and who has worked at other big clubs have a go at turning the situation round.

In his first match we beat Birmingham 3-2 although given Birminghams recent slump in form it does not look so good with hindsight. Then we lost 4-2, 4-0, 2-1 finally yesterday 5-1 to Luton. A report can be found here. 15 goals shipped in four games!. His chance has gone and clearly some stability needs to be brought to the club in general and the dressing room in particular.

There is probably some dead wood in the dressing room but these are generally the same players that got to the playoff final last season so in theory with some organisation and determination a half decent manager should be able to turn things around. Come on Ken please sort out a decent appointment as the new manager a.s.a.p. If it is left much longer we will have to be working out how trim our budgets to life in Division 1!

Speaking of budgets and difficulties with managing them it did amuse me to see this article in the Guardian about Peter Ridsdale lining up a takeover for Cardiff. Good luck boys you will probably need it. How this guy is allowed to continue as a director of a football club let alone take one over is beyond me.

Is this the end game playing out?

Iraq and US and British foreign policy vis-a-vis Iraq has been a disaster ever since Bush decided he was going to oust Saddam come what may and with whatever pretext. As I recall he initially thought Baghdad was responsible for the attack on the twin towers.

This article in the Guardian indicates that efforts are under way in Washington and London to find an exit strategy for Iraq.

Here in the UK the Chief of the General Staff has said what everyone else has been thinking for some considerable time. He should not have said it but it does not make it any less true just because he ought not to have said. Tony Blair has been forced to state that he supports what General Sir Richard Dannatt said even though there is considerable doubt as whether or not he really does.

Back across the pond it is clear that the Americans are also having a rethink and as I suggested before it appears that Blair does not want to act unilaterally and is awaiting guidance and direction from Washington. That guidance will appear doubtless after the US mid term elections when James Baker's commission will publish its recommendations. Having said that Bush is clearly laying the ground for a possible withdrawal and is consulting his generals according to this piece from the BBC.

If this really is the case then Blair should think very carefully before authorising British forces to go back into Amara with a view to retaking it. This city was handed over to the Iraqis just two months ago and now appears to be in chaos with 800 militiamen said to be in control. There is little point sending British troops into a blood bath if both London and Washington are starting to move towards acceptance of the fact that withdrawal is inevitable.

A futher Guardian article which can be found here goes on to outline eight possible options which are said to be under discussion between London and Washington.

The eight options with their pros and cons are as follows :

1 British out now

One of the British diplomats involved in talks on Iraq policy said the UK, which has responsibility for the south of Iraq, "could go tomorrow almost ... It would not look pretty, but it is doable".

Against British diplomats pinpoint three problems if the UK was to pull out immediately. One would be political: the US would not welcome being left virtually alone. The second is military: the US would no longer have a dependable force in the south. The third is security: without British forces in place, fighting between the various militia groups and the criminal gangs in Basra and elsewhere would intensify.

For The British presence is part of the problem. If Basra, Amara and other places were to disintegrate after British forces leave, the FCO hopes Shia religious leaders and Iran, which has influence over the Shia, could quickly establish stability.

Likelihood Not being seriously considered yet. Halving British forces next summer, with further reductions later on, is still the likeliest outcome.

2 US coalition out now

"We could pull out now and leave them to their fate," a Foreign Office official said. "But the place could implode." The advantage of this option would be to cut short the agony.

Against A premature pull-out could precipitate an even more ferocious civil war. Faced with world outrage over the level of human rights abuses and carnage, the US might then have to consider going back in circumstances even worse than before.

For The presence of US forces is making things worse. The insurgency would lose its patriotic justification. A pull-out might force the Iraqi parties and security forces to work together or face a descent into anarchy.

Likelihood Such an early exit is unlikely. It would be an unpalatable humiliation for the Bush administration and most of its critics agree that a hasty withdrawal could ultimately oblige the troops to go back.

3 Phased withdrawal

This is the present policy, but any pull-out is contingent on Iraq developing its own security forces. But there are increasing calls in Washington and London for a timetable. A Foreign Office official said: "The date might possibly have to be secret." Otherwise it could encourage insurgents to step up attacks. During this stage, the US could pour in money for employment programmes.

Against The risk of agreeing a secret date with the Iraqi government is that, as with much else in Iraq, the date would probably leak out anyway.

For The prospect of the removal of its security blanket might force the Iraqi government to face up to the many issues it ignores at present, such as the rise in sectarian violence. It also allows more time for training the Iraqi army and trying to train and reform the police force, a policy that has so far proved to be slower than coalition forces had hoped.

Likelihood Still the likeliest option.

4 Talk to Iran and Syria

There appears to have been virtual consensus in the Baker commission for talks with Iraq's two most difficult neighbours on the grounds that they must ultimately want stability but will not pursue it while excluded from negotiations. The FCO, which has an embassy in Tehran, is pushing for engagement too.

Against Iran and Syria could make demands in return for help that the Bush administration would find hard to accept. Iran would, at a minimum, demand that the US stop calling for regime change. Syria could urge the US to put pressure on Israel to return the Golan Heights, lost in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. There is some question over whether either country could stop sectarian killings.

For Whatever the limitations of their influence, the bloodshed is only likely to worsen until they are brought on board.

Likelihood There may be too much resistance in the Bush administration to direct talks, but the US could well give the nod to negotiations between a sovereign Iraq and its powerful neighbours.

5 Iraqi strongman

The US and British governments have been disappointed so far with Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's elected prime minister who took over earlier this year, mainly over the reluctance of his Shia-dominated coalition to tackle Shia death squads. Washington and London could press for his replacement with a strongman at the head of a junta, such as Ayad Allawi, the interim prime minister from 2004-05 - and roll back democracy.

Against Ousting a democratic government, with its carefully crafted constitution, would amount to a scandalous policy failure. "I do not see that as an option for western democracies," a British official said. Allawi is treated with suspicion by religious Shias because he is secular and detested by Sunnis because he presided over the attack on Falluja.

For Only a strong, secular Iraqi leader could break the sectarian deadlock and broker the kind of compromises over oil and regional autonomy that are essential to prevent civil war and keep the country together.

Likelihood Not likely.

6 Break-up of Iraq

Iraq is moving towards a federal model that could result in its break-up. The Kurdish area to the north is virtually autonomous anyway. The Shia-dominated area stretching from Basra in the south to the holy cities of Kerbala and Najaf further north could form another bloc, leaving the Sunnis with much of the west and centre - mostly oil-free desert. Advocates of such partition talk about using coalition forces to escort minority populations across the ethnic divides to streamline the partition and working out a fair revenue-sharing formula for oil.

Against The break-up would leave a power vacuum in the region, which Iran, Syria and Turkey could exploit. The partition of Iraq would not be easy. Baghdad, which has huge Sunni and Shia communities, could explode.
For The sectarian killings are creating de facto partition. Military escorts for civilians displaced by the violence would at least reduce the death toll.

Likelihood Events on the ground may make it inevitable.

7 Redeploy & contain

There are two variations. One is for US forces to leave populated areas and retreat to "super-bases" in the desert from where they could support Iraqi forces - something the army has already begun. An alternative would be for the US forces to move out of Iraq altogether and use bases in nearby countries.

Against "Super-bases could be the worst of both worlds," argues Larry Diamond, a former adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority. The troops would be too cut off from the streets to have much impact, but they would remain foreign occupiers. It could be difficult to persuade other Arab countries to provide bases, and once out, it will be harder going back. It could also be perceived as cutting and running.

For US forces would no longer be in the firing line and with them gone, the motivation for many of the insurgents might evaporate. They would still be at hand to prop up the elected government.

Likelihood Quite possible in the short term as the US tries to stem its casualties, but unlikely as a lasting solution.

8 One last push

This would involve an increase of troops in the short term in the hope of creating sufficient security to deliver economic gains and create confidence in the Iraqi government. This roughly is Senator John McCain's preferred option, but might also appeal to Mr Bush as it would not immediately require a policy U-turn.

Against It might be too late to curb the escalating violence and it would be politically unpalatable at home. It could leave even more US forces stuck in the middle of a civil war.

For Military experts have long said there are not enough coalition forces in Iraq to seal the borders against infiltration and stamp out sectarian killings. It would be a sign of backing for the Baghdad government and would force sectarian leaders to take it more seriously.

Likelihood A final gamble by Mr Bush is not to be discounted. Senator McCain is a presidential frontrunner for 2008, but by then Iraq may look very different.

My Opinion

Option 3 (Phased withdrawal) may be the current policy and may in the opinion of the Guardian still be the likeliest outcome. If they mean in the short term then they may be correct. However, in the long run I suspect that the outcome will be option 6 (break up of Iraq) whether or not the tricky question of oil revenues can be resolved or not. The country is virtually in the throws of a civil war in any case and there are clearly areas which are likely strongholds for each of the Kurds, Shias and Sunnis.

Imagine Earth without people

This was the title of a fascinating piece in last weeks New Scientist which can be found here.

The article was based around the concept that all the people on earth disappeared over night and asked the question what would happen to the earth once we had gone.

Amongst the more interesting snippets were :

By some estimates, 85 per cent of the night sky above the European Union is light-polluted; in the US it is 62 per cent and in Japan 98.5 per cent. In some countries, including Germany, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, there is no longer any night sky untainted by light pollution. Pretty quickly - 24, maybe 48 hours - you'd start to see blackouts because of the lack of fuel added to power stations

In the boreal forests of northern Alberta, Canada, for example, human impact mostly consists of access roads, pipelines, and other narrow strips cut through the forest. In the absence of human activity, the forest will close over 80 per cent of these within 50 years, and all but 5 per cent within 200

Even if CO2 emissions stop tomorrow, though, global warming will continue for another century, boosting average temperatures by a further few tenths of a degree. Atmospheric scientists call this "committed warming", and it happens because the oceans take so long to warm up compared with the atmosphere. In essence, the oceans are acting as a giant air conditioner, keeping the atmosphere cooler than it would otherwise be for the present level of CO2.

That last one certainly makes you think of the trouble we are stacking up for the future!

New 7 Wonders of the World - who would you vote for?

The original 7 wonders of the world are no more and are down to just one - the pyramids at Giza.

Someone has come up with the idea of an online vote for the new 7 wonders of the world.

In all honesty I have to say it is hard to tell whether or not this site is genuine or whether it is just a scam aimed at raising some money and selling some products.

Their shortlist of 21 which can be seen here seems a little odd to me. The Statue of Liberty and the Eiffel Tower to mention two.

If I had to narrow it down to seven I would go for the following :

1. Stonehenge

2. The Great Wall of China

3. The Pyramids of Giza

4. The Easter Island Statues

5. Angkor Wat

6. Machu Picchu

7. Chichen Itza

Blairs legacy

If as we all suspect Tony Blair has been hanging on in order to establish / preserve his legacy then things have changed a lot over the last week or so. His legacy was always going to be dubious at best - more a case of opportunities lost than a case of opportunities taken.

Frankly if one is looking for positives then once you get past Independence for the Bank of England (for which no doubt Gordon Brown will claim the credit), the Good Friday Agreement, equalization of the age of consent and the Civil Partnership Act one begins to struggle to find positives.

The negatives include much of his foreign policy (which appears to most observers to be merely an extension of that espoused in Washington DC) as well as many problems on the domestic front. Whether Tony Blair likes it or not the illegal war in Iraq will inevitably form a huge part of his page in history.

General Sir Richard Dannatt should not have said the things he said from a constitutional point of view but nobody has seriously questioned the fact that he was right. Yesterday Blair was forced to concede that British troops may be out of Iraq in 10 to 16 months time.

It has also become clear (yet again) just how beholden Blair is to the policy espoused by the United States. He does not want to act unilaterally and needs to await guidance and direction from Washington. That guidance will appear doubtless after the US mid term elections when James Baker's commission will publish its recommendations. It is apparent from this article in yesterdays Guardian that a potential change of direction for US foreign policy is in the offing.

If that change of direction indicates a withdrawal from Iraq it will be fascinating to see what calculations Blair make about his place in history. Does he want to bring the troops home himself or will he continue to hold out stubbornly and leave the task to Brown or whoever the next Prime Minister may be.

If it is left until he is gone and Brown takes over then I would not be surprised to see a whirlwind of announcements on policy (many of which will be contrary to the current position) including a swift withdrawal from Iraq. Brown is ruthless and he will calculate that he needs to kill this issue before a general election which he will want to win.

Ten most polluted places in the world

This report from the Blacksmith Institute identifies the top 10 most polluted sites in the world. I was not surprised to see Chernobyl on the list but I have to confess that most of the rest I had never heard of.

Leaving Chernobyl the other nine sites identified were :

DZERZINSK, RUSSIA - Chemicals and toxic byproducts from Cold War-era chemical weapons manufacturing, including Sarin, VX gas, lewisite - the poisonous effect of which is owed to its arsenic trioxide content, yperite (mustard gas), prussic acid, phosgene, dioxins and other persistent organic chemicals. Lead, from an additives manufacturer, now closed.

HAINA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Lead.

KABWE, ZAMBIA - Lead, cadmium

LA OROYA, PERU - Lead, copper, zinc, and sulfur dioxide.

LINFEN, SHANXI PROVINCE, CHINA - Fly-ash, carbon monoxide, Nitrogen oxides, PM-2.5, PM-10, Sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds, arsenic, lead

MAILUU-SUU, KYRGYZSTAN - Radioactive uranium mine tailings. Gamma radiation from the dumps measures in between 100-600 micro-roentgens per hour. Heavy metals, and cyanides.

NORILSK, RUSSIA - Air pollution - particulates including Strontium-90, Caesium-137, Sulfur dioxide, heavy metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, lead, selenium), particulates, nitrogen and carbon oxides, phenols, hydrogen sulfide.

RUDNAYA PRISTAN/DALNEGORSK, RUSSIA - Lead, cadmium, mercury, antimony


RANIPET, INDIA - Chemicals

The full report (without images) can be found here

The full report (with images about 12mb) can be found here

Thailand - new approach to trouble in the south

Whatever one feels about the military coup in Thailand the new approach to dealing with the insurgency in the southernmost provinces is to be welcomed.

The new Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has been on a visit to neighbouring Malaysia and has been discussing the problems of violence in the four southernmost provinces of Thailand which are nearest to Malayasia.

According to this report in The Nation Surayud signaled he will take a different approach on the crisis to the hardline stance of the ousted government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. "Let me explain my personal strategy of trying to solve the problems in the south, by peaceful means," he said after talks with Malaysian leaders."We will try to talk to a lot of people. Initially I told the Malaysian prime minister that I will talk to the Muslim leaders in the south, talk to kids in schools. So that is the way I'm trying to present myself, by way of talking."

The Malaysian Defence Minister Najib Razak said "In our meeting, the Thai PM has showed his dedication to solve the southern Thailand political issue. He will restore ties with Muslim leaders in southern Thailand and take steps to start a new administration there, retaining the old administration but with new adjustments".

Lets hope this works and a peaceful solution can be found

Mourinho determined to disgrace Chelsea

If it wasn't enough to virtually accuse someone of attempting to kill his player (see Hunt innocent but what about Mourinho) without any supporting evidence Jose Mourinho has blundered again with factually inaccurate statements about the time it took for an ambulance to arrive to treat his player.

According to the BBC Mourinho claims that "My goalkeeper was in the dressing room for 30 minutes waiting for an ambulance." and went on to say "He left 30 minutes after my doctor called for an urgent ambulance."

The only problem with his accusations are that they do not marry up at all with the official timeline issued by Reading Football Club yesterday. This gives the timings as follows :

17.16 The collision between Petr Cech and Stephen Hunt occurred and treatment was provided on the pitch.

17.21 Petr Cech was taken into the dressing room on a stretcher. Chelsea Football Club's medical staff were in charge of the treatment provided to Cech. At first, they decided that it was not necessary to call an ambulance.

17.40 Cech's condition deteriorated and the Chelsea doctor called for assistance which was immediately raised from the stadium medical control.

17.45 After a brief inspection of Cech, the paramedics called for an ambulance.

17.52 The ambulance arrived at the players' entrance.

18.04 The ambulance departed Madejski Stadium.

18.11 The ambulance arrived at the Royal Berkshire Hospital.

This statement seems to be supported by the South Central Ambulance Service who issued their timeline as follows :

17.15 Cech injured

17.20 Cech taken to dressing room. Chelsea doctor does not think ambulance necessary

17.45 Cech's condition deteriorates and Chelsea doctor requests ambulance

17.52 Ambulance arrives at Madejski Stadium

18.11 Ambulance arrives at Royal Berkshire hospital

They went onto say "The removal of the patient was a decision taken by Chelsea, who were offered two routes. One was round the pitch on a stretcher. The other was by a small lift, via a wheelchair." This again completely contradicts Mourinho's statement that the only way the player could get from the dressing room to the ambulance was via a lift.

At some point it seems to me that someone has to step in and make Mourinho responsible for his increasingly bizarre behaviour. Everyone understands that Chelsea have lost two goalkeepers and that one of them was seriously injured. Everyone wishes Petr Cech a swift recovery. But these facts cannot justify Mourinho's statements and it is time that the FA took some action against Mourinho for bringing the game into disrepute

Common sense on the north south divide

I saw a great piece on the long running and thorny issue of the North / South divide here in Mondays Guardian

As anyone who has lived in the south and the south east in particular can tell you there has been a problem for many years and over the years these problems have only got worse.

Local authorities are constantly being given housing allocations which they have to make provision for in their local plans even though they know that the infrastructure in their area can barely cope as it is.

Water and sewage systems are creaking and overloaded, the local road networks cannot cope and the local authority will have to make provision for a whole host of additional services for these new residents from schools to refuse disposal.

In the long run the cost of most of those additional services will not be covered by any planning gain agreements and the cost will have to be picked up by existing and new council tax payers or through cuts in other services.

Central government will also need to deal with the demands for other essential services such as Doctors, Dentists and Hospitals.

How about the problems with water supply in the South East this summer? There is plenty of water in the north but where are we going to be with water supplies in the south in 10 or 20 years time. If rainfall drops off because of global warming, we continue to have hotter and longer summers and usage continues to rise as more and more business and people are crammed into the south east corner of the country.

Public transport is also creaking in some areas, yes there are many areas where public transport is almost non existent but travel into London on most of the commuter lines and you can see that there is not much more capacity available.

Meanwhile less and less jobs are available in the north where unemployment is generally higher and allegedly whole streets in some of the most run down areas can be picked up for a few quid.

I have always felt that this is an issue that could only be tackled successfully through central government intervention. Of course you cannot force people to move from the South to the North but you only have to look at the North / South motorway network on Friday and Sunday evenings to see that there are a large number of people who work / live in the South who want to spend a lot of their leisure time in the North – primarily because that is where they are from originally and where many of their friends and relatives continue to reside. With the right incentives, jobs and infrastructure many of these people would be delighted to move North again instead of travelling backwards and forwards at weekends.

Who knows perhaps the government could invest in all these run down streets which are available at a cheap price and refurbish them to let or sell at a future date as demand for property in the North rises again once the infrastructure and jobs are in place.

Hunt innocent but what about Mourinho

Nearly 72 hours after the Reading vs Chelsea game and a lot of hot air has been spouted about the clash between Stephen Hunt and Petr Cech which saw the latter end up in hospital with a fractured skull.

Mourinho was undoubtedly upset at the loss of not one but two goalkeepers and lashed out at Stephen Hunt after the game. Not a nice reaction but possibly understandable.

What was not so understandable was maintaining that position after having had an opportunity to review footage of the incident and after many independent reporters had also reviewed the footage and come to the conclusion that there was no malice in the challenge.

I don't normally read The Daily Mail but is nice to see them suggesting here that it is Chelsea who should now be apologising to Stephen Hunt.

Dull as Dishwater

I have decided to take part in the one day in history blogging event where one chronicles an ordinary day in the life of someone in the UK. If anyone else wants to get involved then click here for more details. I suspect that if everyone chronicles their day as it is then a lot of these blogs (including mine) will be extremely dull. I will post this up and continue to add to it throughout the day.

My alarm went at 6.45 as usual and I set off for work in Reading. The M4 was a lot quieter than usual so I can only assume that there was an accident somewhere west of Junction 12. Walked into town and picked up a baguette for my breakfast before returning to my desk where a series of urgent issues need to be resolved.

Somebody needs a whole load of process maps on their laptop to do an external presentation and the maps are not up to date and they do not know how to get them onto their laptop. Oh and their laptop is playing up and they have gone to a meeting ho hum.

Meanwhile we are still awaiting a custom piece of software which is being written for use by our team. It should have been implemented by the end of September but we have not even got as far as System testing yet and the lack of this software is impacting on our customers who are starting to jump up and down.

One of my colleagues has tried to use our process mapping software in a meeting room and it wouldn't work so I had to go and troubleshoot that as well. Got it working even though I am not technical support. Off to grab a coffee.

Finally resolved the problem with the presentation which was all to do with file access rights to the html files which were needed to run the presentation remotely from the main software. Nipped out to get some fruit for my lunch (all part of my efforts to diet and lose a couple of stone). Also booked the Harley in to try and get my rear wheel sorted out as it appears to have the slowest slow puncture ever.

Spent an hour or so sorting my emails out, it is amazing how much time is spent every day sorting out and replying to work or personal emails. Then spent the rest of the afternoon trying to work out some details for a rollout of process mapping software to 300 people.

Home to the usual domestic chores and time spent on the PC, eating a lovely Dinner cooked by my daughter-in-law, watching football and playing with the kittens who are just the most demented things on earth.

And so to bed

I just knew this would be dull - god knows what thousands of entries like this are going to read like to some historian in 100 or 1000 years time!

More on The Chief of Staff from Millenium Dome Elephant

Having given my thoughts on the furore surrounding the comments by Chief of the General Staff in a piece entitled The thin red line I came across this great piece from the Millenium Dome Elephant. Absolutely brilliant, spot on and a great read. In fact I can heartily recommend The Very Fluffy Diary of Millennium Dome, Elephant to anyone. A unique style of blogging and usually extremely witty.

Thaksin wants to return to Thailand

But according to articles in The Nation here and The Bangkok Post here he will not be allowed to return until martial law has been lifted and even then there is some uncertainty as to whether or not he will be allowed to return home.

Thaksin wants to come home but must know that rightly or wrongly there will be some music to face. On the other hand his supporters may welcome him with open arms which in turn may make it more difficult for the coup leaders to prosecute him.

The coup leaders I suspect are torn between bringing Thaksin home so that they can prosecute him and the knowledge that bringing him home may in itself trigger the violence they wish to avoid.

Maybe a compromise will be reached in the coming weeks whereby Thaksin does a deal which enables him to return without prosecution if certain undertakings are given with regard to him not participating in Thai politics in the future. Mind you even this will leave open the question of Thai Rak Thai and its members or former members an their participation in the next set of elections

The thin red line.

Has General Sir Richard Dannatt crossed the line between reasonable military advice and political interference and if so what should be done.

I have found this really difficult to get my head round so I will tackle the easier question first. If he has crossed the line then he should go. No doubt about that in my opinion.

We live in a parliamentary democracy and at the end of the day our armed forces are at the disposal of the government of the day. This is particularly so where there has been a specific vote in the House of Commons. In my opinion this is a precedent which should be maintained and all military action (except in the most dire circumstances) should be authorised by the House of Commons. Never mind that the war was an illegal war founded upon a false premise. The place to resolve that is through the ballot box. Otherwise we run the risk of the military determining which policies they do and do not like and one has only to look at Thailand to see where that can lead.

Now to the more difficult question. Has he crossed that line?

As the Chief of the General Staff he has a responsibility to those under his command to look after them and to ensure that they have the correct tools and resources to undertake the missions they are carrying out. Initially any such concerns should be addressed to the Ministry of Defence and ultimately to the Secretary of State for Defence. So is it ever acceptable to raise any of these concerns in public via the media or otherwise. I think that depends upon what the issue is.

If the Chief of the General Staff had made representations about lack of soldiers or weapons to complete the mission and his concerns had been over ridden then I feel he may have been justified in putting these concerns into the public domain.

But his comments when much further than that as is made clear in this piece from yesterdays Observer. To quote directly from the article "The general would tell Sands that British troops should be brought home 'soon' from Iraq and that their presence was 'exacerbating' tensions. Not only that, but he, in effect, accused the Prime Minister of being 'naive' in thinking they could install a liberal democracy in Iraq. Within hours of her dramatic story appearing in print, Browne rang Dannatt to demand if his comments were accurately replicated. They were."

In my view this means that he had crossed that line. He almost certainly knew what he was doing and was prepared therefore to take the consequences if it came to it. It matters not one jot that what he said was common sense and that I and many others will entirely agree with his comments that we are part of the problem. We know we should never have gone there in the first place. But is is not the role of the Chief of General Staff to interfere in the political process for determining what missions our armed forces will be used and what missions they will not be used for. Sadly I feel he should go.

Two defeats - one thrashing and one hard fought

Blackwell sacked and Carver takes over as caretaker manager. In his first game Leeds took 3 points off Birmingham. Since then two very poor performances have seen Leeds lose 4-2 to West Brom with 10 men and yesterday they lost 4-0 to Stoke. Yet again a penalty was missed and Carver is beginning to find out just how tough this job can be.

He was quoted after the game as follows "I know what my ambitions are but I have to be quite honest and say possibly this ends my chance of getting the manager's job full-time. The result doesn't help my cause but I will take it on the chin. It was a dreadful day and my first apology is to the fans because we had built their hopes up."

Hearsay on the message boards indicates the players are still unhappy and speculation is that Butler is at the heart of the problems. Whoever or whatever is the cause of the problems Carver now has nothing to lose if he wants to have any chance of securing the job on a permanent basis and should act to drop whoever the troublemakers are for the game against Leicester on Tuesday night. If things don't change he will lose his job anyway

And so the Madejski Stadium for a blood and thunder encounter between Reading and Chelsea. After this game (and the 1-1 draw with Manchester United) no team in the Premiership will be in any doubt as to Readings grit and determination to battle for each and every point this season. Yes Chelsea have millions and millions worth of talent at their disposal but Reading matched them throughout the game despite Chelseas clearly superior possession.

The game had everything. Petr Cech departed in the opening minute after colliding with Hunt. Mourinho later all but accused Hunt of hitting Cech deliberately but in my opinion (and that of several national newspapers) both players were entitled to go for the ball. Chelsea scored via an own goal from a deflected free kick that should never have been given by Mike Riley. The referee had a poor game in my opinion with Chelsea diving and bullying their way to a lot of the decisions which went their way. Two players were dismissed Mikel and Bikey (both probably a bit unlucky) and apparently both teams had a member of their coaching staff (Dillon for Reading and Rui Faria for Chelsea) sent to the stands in a fracas towards the end of the match. Cudicini was also knocked out about two minutes before the end of what turned out to be a 102 minute game.

The Chelsea players and fans were deservedly abused by the Reading fans with taunts of "Divers, Divers" but doubtless they will be happy with their three points. Anyone else visiting the Madejski Stadium this season and hoping for an easy ride will now be aware they will not get one.

Reading push for expansion

Having reached the Premiership and the top flight of English football after a mere 135 years of existence and as the oldest team in the top flight they are not about to stand still. Reading have announced plans to expand their stadium from 24,000 capacity up to approximately 38,000.

According to the official site "Additional seating will be added to the existing single-tier North, South and East Stands, and a new roof will be constructed over each stand. The West Stand will not be affected. The existing on-site access road will be realigned to accommodate the enlarged stadium. Other existing car parking and site infrastructure may have minor alterations, but it is not intended to increase the on-site car parking capacity. Therefore, the planning application will also address transportation issues associated with additional off-site car parking and related increases in public transport provision necessary to deal with the new capacity."

As far as I can see from personal experience nobody is going to object to the ground expansion other than on the grounds of transport and parking issues. These are the two things which need to be addressed at present and will need enormous work if they current parking arrangements and road network are to cater for another 14,000 fans on a regular basis.

In other news it looks as if another former Reading player is due to become a league manager with Peter Grant rumoured to be taking over at Norwich.

Meanwhile Reading take on Chelsea in the Premiership today. More on that tomorrow. Off to the game now and hoping that they show the sort of spirit that earnt them a point in their last home game against Manchester United.

Fears of flooding in Bangkok

Oh well it is Friday 13th so here is some news about some more bad luck which has befallen the Thai people.

There have been a lot of floods in Thailand in the last couple of months and now according to the Bangkok Post there are fears that Bangkok itself (which is already suffering from flooding) may suffer disastrous flooding on a scale even greater than the floods which submerged the city in 1995. This is partially because because residents in upstream provinces have opposed the diversion of run-off from the river into the vast fields along its route.

There has not been any increase in the amount of rain this year but it has fallen in different parts of the country. Last year's rain was concentrated mostly in the upper North, and the water run-off was stored by major dams. This year's rain mainly fell south of the dams without the benefit of the reservoirs holding it in.

Apparently a key obstacle to the city's flood drainage attempts is the high tide period. During the three-day high tide, the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) has asked the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) not to discharge water from the city into the Chao Phraya.

I must learn more about the tides in Thailand if they have a three day high tide - it is hard to imagine what that might do here in attempts to protect the east coast and London from flooding.
Despite the violence in the south, the floods and the coup we are still planning to travel to Thailand early next year and I may blog a bit over the next couple of weeks about Koh Samui in an attempt to encourage others to visit Thailand for themselves.

Carver should look at Northern Ireland

I am not going to comment much on the disastrous performance by England last night. The BBC have a report here and the Guardian report can be found here. Suffice to say that Mclaren is now getting the stick that is to be expected for anyone who takes on the England job. He wouldn't have been my choice in the first place but he has to be given a chance at least until the end of the qualifiers.

I am more interested in the Northern Ireland result. A report of last nights 1-0 defeat of Latvia can be found here. David Healy scored the only goal. Northern Ireland beat Spain 3-2 a month ago. David Healy scored all three goals. A report of that game can be found here. For someone who has never played a Premiership game he is not doing badly on the international scene and has now scored 24 goals in 54 appearances for Northern Ireland.

I listened to Lawrie Sanchez on the radio this morning. He made it very clear that the Northern Ireland team was set up to play to Healys strengths. I hope John Carver was listening and can apply some of the same rationale to the way he sets up the Leeds team

Boiled egg cracked

I should declare an interest here or perhaps more accurately a lack of interest. I cannot stand eggs. I am not sure if I am technically allergic to them as I am able to eat cakes and biscuits etc quite happily but give me an egg in egg form and I am likely to vomit. However, this article in yesterdays Guardian caught my eye.

The age-old problem of how to cook the perfect boiled egg may have been solvedby doing away with the boiling water. A British inventor, Simon Rhymes, has created a machine that uses light bulbs to cook the egg and lops the top off at exactly the right height for toast soldier dunking.

Lets hope someone in the UK takes this up and Mr Rhymes doesn't end up having to go abroad to get his creation produced.

Theo is the star as U21's qualify

Theo Walcott was the star last night as Englands U21's qualified for the European Championship Finals next year. England battled hard to defend their 1-0 lead from the first leg first of all against ten men and then with ten men. Germany had Markus Brzenska sent off early in the first half and the Germans seemed to play better with ten than with eleven. They won a penalty and then shock horror..... they missed. Early in the second half England's Steven Taylor was red carded to make it ten vs ten. Sixteen minutes to go and on comes Theo Walcott and promptly scores two goals both of which demonstrated both his lightning quick pace and a similarity to Henry in the way in which he took them both. Steve Mclaren may yet regret leaving Theo in the U21's when England face Croatia tonight.

More support for wind farms

Ofgem says the current arrangements fro those who install microgeneration units and sell any surplus electricity are too complex for customers, with some people not being paid for power they supply back to networks.

The regulator has also urged suppliers to act as a one-stop shop for information on how to install microgeneration units and to help customers obtain meters that can register exports of surplus electricity they may want to sell.

Ofgem went on to say "Suppliers need to compete against each other to raise their game and address these issues so they can respond to the growing numbers of customers that want to generate their own power.

Ofgem threatened that "If they (the Suppliers) are unable to successfully do that, then new legislation could force us to set prices and terms for the sale of surplus electricity back to the networks."

Meanwhile Chris Huhne has called for Ofgem to be given the power to encourage wind farms and that the government should encourage more investment in wind energy by designating planning zones appropriate for wind turbines. See his press release here.

We have started eating the planet

This refers to Ecological Debt Day which apparently this year fell on 9th October.

The day symbolises the day of the year when people's demands exceeded the Earth's ability to supply resources and absorb the demands placed upon it.
The worlds first "ecological debt day" fell on 19 December 1987 and since then it has only got worse

by 1990 it fell on 7th December, by 1995 it fell on 21st November, by 2000 it fell on 1st November and by 2005 it fell on 11th October.

Cost of ID cards - are we being told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

The Home Office now estimate that the cost of delivering and running the ID card scheme over the next ten years will be £5.4bn. All well and good (apart from the ID card part of the announcement) as the figures fall in line with the figure of £5.8bn previously estimated by the Home Office. The government has published this information as part of its first bi-annual report to parliament as required under s37 of the Identity Cards Act



However, I couldn't identify anywhere on the Home Office website where the breakdown of these costs was given. Eventually I managed ttrackck down a copy of the report itself here. Guess what? No details except the setup costs will be £290m and the operating costs will be £5,100m. The details would have been interesting to see given the LSE reports which have estimated that the true cost to government as a whole might be somewhere between £19bn and £30bn over ten years

The LSE identity project has already published its initial response to the report in which it says "the report remains vague on many important areas of the scheme and raises important questions:"

Their response goes on to list the outstanding issues as follows :

It gives no details as to whether the new system is likely to be based on a new database (which can have proper security built in) or on existing databases which will have many inaccuracies. What is the breakdown of the 'set-up costs'? Will this entail a new register or an adaptation of older systems?

There is no indication of when procurement is likely to begin or how long it is likely to take. When will the procurement process actually begin?

It talks confidently about successfully recording biometrics to identify individuals uniquely, but there are no immediate plans to trial possible technologies at this stage. How much will the Government spend on testing the technology, particularly secure systems required in this as well as the biometric technologies?

It refers to international obligations for passports in the Schengen area, but fails to point out that the UK is not subject to these requirements. Has the Government looked into the implementation of biometric passport in the Schengen area? Do their passport programs incur similar costs and details?

No consideration is made of the likely fees that will be charged to verify identities against the National Identity Register. Has the Government estimated costs of allowing employers to verify visas through verification against existing visa databases for foreign employment?

The claimed purpose of the Scheme continues to shift. It now appears to be primarily about illegal working and illegal immigration, rather than identity fraud which was claimed as the main purpose a year ago.

One of the expected benefits of the Scheme is convenience for citizens. What policy and cost considerations are involved in the integration of the Citizen Information Program into the National Identity Register?

So no major questions to answer then? Oh except what might we do with that £5.4bn instead? Maybe we could increase the number of Police Officers or something similarly practical. Let alone suppose the figure is larger or anywhere near the £30bn suggested by the LSE. I am sure the true figure will be way higher than the governments estimate simply because they are very clear that it does not include any costs to enable other government departments to make use of the ID card. Clearly they are going to make use of it so failing to identify and plan for the costs does not seem either sensible or realistic.

Europes largest wind farm starts construction

It is great to see that work has started on Europes largest wind farm. The project will take three years to complete and will generate 322 megawatts of electricity - enough to power 200,000 homes.

I am a great fan of wind power. The picture to the left is of the Ecotricity Wind Turbine at Green Park, Reading adjacent to the M4.

I drive past this one a couple of times a day and I have to say I think it is beautiful. The more the merrier I say and they claim that the scottish scheme will save 250,000 tonnes of harmful CO2 every year.

Can you tell which party they are in?

How about this for a quiz

Don't look at the bottom and work your way down before scoring yourself

Sadly I only scored 3 out of 7

Blogging for Backlash

Today is Blogging for Backlash day. This is being organised by Backlash the umbrella group which was set up " in an attempt to collate evidence for an informed debate on censorship of pornography, which the Government's tendentious and one sided consultation paper spectacularly failed to provide"

I have commented on this issue before back in August in a post entitled Banning violent pornography - should it be done? It does seem to me that this is an issue, no matter how hard it may be to do so, which we as Liberals should take a stance on. In my previous post I made clear that there were two important criteria to consider here. Firstly should we be banning anything particularly where it involves consensual activities? and secondly even if we were to ban such things would it solve the problem?

Backlash states on its website very clearly why it is opposed to the proposed law.

It is worth considering these points one by one

1) The Home Office admits in its consultation document that there is no evidence that demonstrates a link between the type of material under discussion and unlawful activity. We agree.

This proposed law is a knee jerk response to the very tragic murder of Liz Longhursts daughter. Will this law prevent violent murders such as that perpetuated upon Liz Longhursts daughter? I don't believe so. Neither did the Whiskey Priest in an excellent piece which can be found here where he said "Ban violent pornography and deaths won't suddenly stop, they might change in character, the people perpetrating them might use different methods, but they won't stop because it's not the pornography that is making them do it - it's something else. It's something that isn't present in the other people that watch violent pornography and don't go and murder people - and we should find out what that is and tackle it."

2) It does not propose to punish the acts themselves, but wishes to make the simple possession of images of certain sexual fantasies subject to a maximum term of 3 years imprisonment. It will deny people the right to make up their own minds about what is acceptable.

Absolutely - people should be able to make up their minds about what they wish to view and not view. The state can and should legislate against activities which are not consensual such as murder and rape or activities where it is reasonable to assume that not all parties can give their consent such as under age sex or bestiality. It is not reasonable to legislate against consensual activities.

3) What consenting adults look at or do in their own homes is not any concern of the State. These proposals would infringe the civil liberties and protected freedoms of law-abiding people.

See above

4) Law enforcement agencies around the world already have powers to prevent and punish actual crimes that have taken place through existing legislation. We condemn any acts where the participants did not give their consent. Viewers should not be penalised for looking at fantasy images of consenting actors.

Absolutely and we have to consider what it is we want our law enforcement agencies to do with their limited resources. Chase down people who have pictures of consensual activities or catch murderers, rapists and paedophiles. I know which one I would pick.

5) The consultation document suggests that banning the possession of such images might have an appreciable effect on supply or demand but fails to advance any arguments or evidence that this is so. We believe that the evidence is to the contrary. Imprisonment of those who look at such images will not remove the images from the internet nor protect children from them.

I am not sure about this one but I guess that like most things if you ban something you immediately create a market for it. Think prohibition in the United States or indeed drugs in the UK at present.

6) We believe that adults can make up their own minds about what they view in private, even if those things may be distasteful to others. Backlash urges anyone who thinks that it is not the business of the state to criminalise the possession of images that the government considers to be "abhorrent", to contact their MP, stating their objections to these proposals.

Seems fair to me and as Liberals we ought to be opposing this erosion of Liberty

Thai Prime Minister announces post coup cabinet

The interim Thai Prime Minister General Surayud Chulanont has announced his cabinet which has been approved by the King. The BBC News article can be found here

The full cabinet list is as follows

The full list of Surayud's Cabinet is:

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister: MR Pridiyathorn Devakula

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister: Kosit Panpiemras

PM's Office Minister: Kunying Tipawadee Meksawan

PM's Office Minister: Thirapat Serirangsan

Defence Minister: Gen Boonrawd Somtat

Foreign Minister: Nitya Pibulsonggram

Deputy Foreign Minister: Saowanit Kongsiri

Tourism and Sports Minister: Suwit Yodmanee

Social Development and Human Security Minister: Paibool Watanasiritham

Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives Minister: Theera Sutabutr

Deputy Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives Minister: Rungruang Issararangkura

Transport Minister: Adm Thira Haocharoen

Deputy Transport Minister: Sansern Wongcha-um

Natural Resource and Environment Minister: Kasem Sanitwong na Ayutthaya

Information and Communication Technology Minister: Sitthichai Pokai-udom

Commerce Minister: Krirkkrai Jirapaet

Energy Minister: Piyasvasti Amranand

Interior Minister: Aree Wong-araya

Deputy Interior Minister: Banyat Chansena

Justice Minister: Charnchai Likitjitta

Labour Minister: Apai Chanthanajulaka

Culture Minister: Khunying Khaisri Sri-aroon

Science and Technology Minister: Prof Dr Yongyuth Yuthawongse

Education Minister: Wijit Srisa-arn

Public Health Minister: Doctor Mongkol Na Songkhla

Deputy Industry Minister: Piyabutr Cholwicharn

Labour support for a written constitution

Well at last some sense from the attorney general who says that a written constitution for the UK should be "seriously" considered. He went on to oppose Camerons suggestion of a Bill of Rights to replace the Human Rights Act. He now says there are strong reasons in principle to consider a written constitution. I agree with him although I am slightly puzzled as to why he has come out now and made this statement. Have I missed something?

Oxford East gained by Lib Dems

At least notionally we gain Oxford East after accounting for boundary changes according to the UKPollingReport. Unfortunately under the same boundary changes we lose Solihull and Somerton and Frome.

Better news when looking at the seats which are designated as new where we a predicted to pick up Chippenham, St Austell and Newquay and York Outer. However again there is some bad news as one of the abolished seats is Brent East currently held by Sarah Teather who has indicated she is going to contest Brent Central which has a notional Labour Majority of 18 percent

Meanwhile locally the changes for Newbury where David Rendel has been reselected appear to be make little difference with the Conservatives losing approximately 444 votes and the Liberal Democrats losing 402 votes.

Reading fans get an apology

Reading fans have at last got the apology from one national newspaper that they feel they deserve. Paul Wilson wrote his apology here in Sundays Observer.

He said "Get ready, Reading fans, here is the unreserved and really quite grovelsome apology to which you are unquestionably entitled. At the start of the season I rather flippantly predicted Reading would be the new Sunderland, prompting a rash of emails from indignant supporters who said Steve Coppell's side would do a lot better than that. In my defence I do think it is important not to sit on the fence in these matters: someone has to finish bottom of the table and it seemed to me that by spending relatively little and keeping their Championship-winning team Reading might be making the same mistake the previous champions did a year earlier."

He went on to say "I am willing to revise my calculations substantially and boldly state that a) Reading will pass Sunderland's total by the end of November (I would have said Bonfire Night, but they have some tough games in the next few weeks), b) they will not touch the bottom of the Premiership, and c) they will stay up."

Reading fans will be delighted with this well deserved apology and will doubtless be waiting for bated breath for a horde of leading journalists to queue up with similar apologies

Great Repeal Act

I realise I am a bit slow off the mark with this one but I was not at this years annual conference. Having listened to Nick Cleggs speech about the need for a Great Repeal Act I have to declare I am convinced. Nick Clegg had me worried during the leadership election. I was worried that one of the great hopes for the future leadership of our great party had sold out on the basis of allowing a temporary leader to hold the fort whilst a younger generation had the opportunity to come through. If anyone has any doubt about the potential that Nick Clegg has to lead this party in the future then they should listen to this speech now. Ok it will take 18 minutes out of your life but I promise it is worth it. Having watched his speech if you feel inspired to suggest some unnecessary laws which need to be repealed then please go here to make your suggestions.

Rebooting Thai democracy

It was great to see a thoughtful piece about the coup in Thailand from Paul Cheesman in this weeks Liberal Democrat News. I don't know if the article is available on the web (if anyone does know please let me know) so I will attempt to precis what he had to say here.

Paul Cheesman's Article

Many people believe that the coup has stunted democracy in Thailand. However, this is not the case, democracy in Thailand was stunted in 2001 when the first single party government took power.

Thai Rak Thai promised 45p healthcare for the poor, farmer debt suspension and a 14k per village capital fund. Much of this was not full funded or did not work but it was very popular with the poor and when Thai Rak Thai won its second term it all but wiped out the opposition

Thaksin used his position and wealth to obtain support from MPs and persuade three opposition parties to merge with Thai Rak Thai.

Things came to a head when Thaksin sold the family company to a Singaporean company after a change in the foreign ownership rules and the sale was declared tax free by the Revenue Department. There was a public backlash with protests in the streets of Bangkok. The general election was called but this failed due to the boycott by the opposition parties. The Thaksin government was now a caretaker government but without even Parliament to keep it in check. This led to the coup which has been endorsed by the King and plans are in progress to hand over to a civilian government with further plans to draw up a constitution and hold further elections in October 2007

As Liberal Democrats we will naturally feel that a coup is undemocratic but in a young democracy like Thailand it has provided a good "reboot" where the computer is inoperative because the installed Anti-Virus program is, itself, totally infected.

My View

Much of Pauls article is true and makes sense in the context of Thailand. However, I still have a concern as to what Thaksin's opponents were opposed to. Sure some of what went on would not be tolerated in say the UK. Sure I agree that a new constitution is required with proper checks and balances to try and prevent such abuses from occurring again. However, I have this lingering suspicion that some of what his opponents were opposed to was to do with his policies and not to do with his abuse of his position. When the elections take place (hopefully next October) it is inconceivable that there will not be parties standing on a platform of Thaksinism given how popular those policies were with the majority. If that proves to be the case then I hope that the democratically elected government will be allowed to get on with the job of the implementing the policies on which they were elected.

Thailand - army agrees to talks with rebels in south

Lets hope this report is a positive step forward. Over the last few years there have been a series of attacks in the four southern most provinces and anything which might lead to a cessation of this carnage has to be welcomed. It appears that the initiative came from the rebel factions themselves. The history of the conflict in the south is as follows (taken from BBC online)

Members of Thailand's minority Muslim community - based almost exclusively in the country's southern provinces - have been at loggerheads with Bangkok for decades.

Thailand's Muslims often complain of discrimination and a lack of opportunities, a resentment which occasionally leads to clashes with the authorities.

But in January 2004, a wave of attacks sparked increased violence in the south, which has seem more than 800 people die since.

Analysts say police corruption, drug running and theft by local criminal gangs have often been responsible for the violence.

But there is an increasing suspicion that Islamic separatists - perhaps allied to international militant groups such as Jemaah Islamiah - are behind the attacks.

Thailand's Muslims are largely concentrated in the four southern provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Songhkla and Yala.

The area is less prosperous than central Thailand, and many of the region's inhabitants complain they are at a disadvantage compared to the country's Buddhist majority.

But those living in the region are also very different from the rest of the Thai population.
The southern provinces were originally part of the ancient Kingdom of Pattani, a semi-autonomous Malay region which adopted Islam in the mid-13th century.

Thailand annexed the region in 1902, but the people living there had - and still do have - far more in common with their neighbours in Malaysia. They speak Yawi, a Malay dialect, and most importantly they are Muslims, abiding by Islamic rules and restrictions.

Increasingly estranged from the Bangkok government, Muslim separatists began an insurgency in the 1970s. The violence eventually died down in the 1990s - but only after the government promised to channel more funds into the region and ensure the Muslim community an adequate political representation.

A raid on an army depot in January 2004 signalled a return to the violence. Four soldiers were killed and 400 guns, most of them M-16 rifles, were stolen from a store in Narathiwat province.
Since then there have been frequent incidents in which symbols of authority - including police officers, teachers and Buddhist monks - have been targeted by Muslim gunmen. The deadliest incident happened on 28 April, when hundreds of suspected Islamic militants launched a series of raids on security posts in the region. The day ended in the massacre of more than 100 of the poorly-armed militants, and there was international concern over the degree of force used by security personnel.

Another bloody incident took place in the southern district of Takbai in October. More than 80 people died after a protest turned violent, Seven were killed at the scene and 78 died in army custody from suffocation, after being loaded into army trucks.

The Thai government continues to insist that most of the attacks in the south can be attributed to local criminals. But it seems evident that organised Islamic separatist groups are playing at least a part in the violence.

There are a number of Muslim separatist groups known to operate in southern Thailand - including Pulo (the Pattani United Liberation Organisation), BRN (the Barisan Revolusi Nasional) and GMIP (Gerakan Mujahadeen Islam Pattani).

In the past, these groups have been linked to larger Islamic organisations such as Jemaah Islamiah - blamed for terrorist attacks across South East Asia - and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in the troubled Indonesian province of Aceh.

No group has categorically claimed responsibility for recent attacks, and it remains difficult to be certain who is ultimately behind the upsurge in violence.

First the Police now the Fire Brigade

Ok technically speaking that should be the other way around in that the story about the police officer refusing to guard the Israeli embassy was from today and this story on Spicy Cauldron about firefighters refusing to hand out leaflets at Gay Pride in Glasgow was from August.

Thanks to one of my readers for pointing out the story on Spicy Cauldron and its connection with the police officer story.

Is this becoming a trend in society? Where people are happy to take the money for doing the job but then want to pick and choose which bits of it they actually do. Of course it is sensible for employers to deploy their people according to those peoples aptitude and ability but in the end surely the employer has the right, and in the case of publicly paid for services a duty, to say to the employee these are your duties and I expect you to do them.

You cannot run a police force like this

I don't know who was responsible for the decision to allow a Muslim police officer to refuse to guard the Israeli embassy in London but you cannot run a police force like this. As I see it the officer is refusing to carry out the duties which he is being paid to do. I understand that he feels that was put in a moral dilemma but if we allow this to slide then where will this leave the police force? It will leave forces up and down the country in a position where they cannot rely on officers to do many types of duties because those officers may object to those duties on moral or other grounds. In other words officers can pick and choose the duties they are assigned to! I wonder what happens when the police are for sale and the officer decides he or she has a moral objection to the corporate sponsor and wearing the logo on his or her uniform.

Infamous Gaffes

A colleague pointed me in the direction of this great piece from BBC Online here. Brings back memories of all those gaffes most of which I recall from when they originally occurred.

Still I was amazed that Prince Phillips comments to a group of british students in China in 1986 didn't make this list. He famously told them "If you stay here much longer, you'll all be slitty-eyed".

I went in search of the details of this gaffe and was amazed to find a whole list of them on Wikipedia which I have reproduced below.

Speaking to a driving instructor in Scotland, he asked: "How do you keep the natives off the booze long enough to get them through the test?".

When visiting China in 1986 he told a group of British students, "If you stay here much longer, you'll all be slitty-eyed".

After accepting a gift from a Kenyan citizen he replied, "You are a woman, aren't you?"

"If it has four legs and is not a chair, has wings and is not an aeroplane, or swims and is not a submarine, the Cantonese will eat it." (1986)

"British women can't cook." (1966)

To a British student in Papua New Guinea "You managed not to get eaten then?"

Angering local residents in Lockerbie when on a visit to the town in 1993, the Prince said to a man who lived in a road where 11 people had been killed by wreckage from the Pan Am jumbo jet: "People usually say that after a fire it is water damage that is the worst. We are still trying to dry out Windsor Castle."

On a visit to the new Welsh Assembly in Cardiff he told a group of deaf children standing next to a Jamaican steel drum band, "Deaf? No wonder you are deaf standing so close to that racket."

He asked an Indigenous Australian, "Still throwing spears?" (2002)

When touring a dog training centre for the deaf and the blind, he is rumoured to have enquired whether they train eating dogs for the anorexic.

Said to a Briton in Budapest Hungary, "You can't have been here that long – you haven't got a pot belly." (1993)

To the President of Nigeria, who was dressed in traditional African robes, "You look like you're ready for bed!"

To Lord Taylor of Warwick, who is black: "And what exotic part of the world do you come from?" Lord Taylor: "I'm from Birmingham."

Seeing a shoddily installed fuse box in a high-tech Edinburgh factory, HRH remarked that it looked "like it was put in by an Indian".

During a Royal visit to China in 1986 he described Peking as "ghastly".

"Aren't most of you descended from pirates?" (in 1994, to an islander in the Cayman Islands)

At the height of the recession in 1981 he said: "Everybody was saying we must have more leisure. Now they are complaining they are unemployed."

Upon presenting a Duke of Edinburgh Award to a student, when informed that the young man was going to help out in Romania for six months, he asked if the student was going to help the Romanian orphans; upon being informed he was not, he said words to the effect of "Good, they [the Romanians] breed orphans over there."

At Salford University, he told a 13 year old aspiring astronaut: "Well, you'll never fly in it, you're too fat."

During a Royal visit to a Tamil Hindu temple in London, he asked a Hindu priest if he was related to the terrorist Tamil Tigers

Can anyone think of any other famous gaffes?

A tale of two Thais

Ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has resigned from his That Rak Thai party according to this report. It is apparent from that report and this report in The Nation that the Thai Rak Thai party is in the process of imploding with 62 former MP's having resigned already and I suspect that the announcement which is being mooted will confirm that the party is to fold.

Meanwhile many ordinary Thais living in rural Thailand clearly still retain their affection for Thaksin Shinawatra and his polices which improved the quality of their life so much and according to this report would vote for him if there was an election tomorrow.

This is where it gets interesting. Lets assume that the Thai Rak Thai party does indeed implode and / or it is banned from taking part in the next set of elections. Lets assume that a new constitution is drawn up and elections take place as promised in October 2007. Lets also assume that Thaksin Shinawatra does not return to Thailand and plays no part in these elections.

What then will happen to all those who were part of or supported Thai Rak Thai? The likelihood is that they will form a new party or parties to contest that election. The piece in The Nation referred to above already indicates the possibility that a party called Seri Thai will be formed from the rubble of Thai Rak Thai. Given the popularity of Thaksin Shinawatras policies it is likely that Thaksinism and Thaksinite policies will form a key part of at least one new party and if such a party can present itself as a credible potential government it is also likely that that party will win the election.

The problem with all this is that I suspect that in many ways this will bring us full circle and will present a dilemma for both the military and the urban (more wealthy) electorate. Was the problem really with Thaksin Shinawatra and the way in which he sold his families company or was the problem actually that a lot of the better off middle class were not very supportive of the money being spent on the rural poor?

Is autism a term of abuse?

Using the term "Autistic" as a term of political abuse is about as low as one can get.

Great quote in this piece from BBC online from the Lib Dems Norman Lamb MP who said: "This may have been a casual off-the-cuff remark from George Osborne, but that doesn't stop it being offensive. Opposition politicians have reason enough to criticise the Chancellor without having to descend to these ill-informed comments. This won't do much to help the attempts to portray the Conservatives as a caring, sharing, modern party."

Well said Norman. As for George Osborne instead of trying to wriggle out of it like a naughty schoolboy he should apologise - simple as that

Nice party turns upon itself

David Camerons strategy appears to be coming unglued already. As far as I can see his strategy to date has broadly been as follows:

1) Apologise for past Tory mistakes when they were the nasty party

2) Attempt to reposition the party as more Centrist Liberal Conservative / One Nation Tories

3) Convince people that they are now the nice party i.e. have a conscience and are worried about poverty etc

4) Don't talk about policies on the grounds that a) it is too far away from a General Election b) if you come up with policies now the other parties will pinch the good ones and c) if you policies are useless it gives plenty of time for people to work out that they are useless. At least that is what I understood Ann Widecombe to say last night.

However, there are still plenty of Tories who fundamentally believe that they must cut taxes come what may. According to the Guardian "The call for tax cuts came from party activists, backbench MPs, Tory donors and the chairman of the party's competitiveness commission, John Redwood" Ah yes John Redwood that reminds me (he is after all my MP) and doubtless many others of several very good reasons for not voting Tory. They clearly have a long way to go before they can present a united front to the public

The cartoon in the Guardian brilliantly illustrates the dilemma and the tension between the Cameron vision of the way forward and that espoused by some of his party members. To see the cartoon click here

Thailands new prime minister sworn in

As expected a retired General has been sworn in as Thailand's interim prime minister. General Surayud Chulanonts profile from the BBC online site is shown below.

At 62, Surayud Chulanont is an army veteran, and one of the few senior Thai figures who is respected by military and civilian leaders alike.

By choosing him as the country's new prime minister, Thailand's military generals also hope he will quieten fears from the international community, who see the former army chief as a safe pair of hands. They also hope his positive standing, both at home and abroad, will allay fears that the military is choosing one of its own to be the country's leader. They had promised to install a civilian prime minister as soon as possible after the 19 September coup.

After a military career spanning nearly 40 years, Gen Surayud is seen as both a skilful soldier and a tactful leader. He has also gained a reputation for being incorruptible - an important trait given the accusations of graft levelled at his predecessor, the ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

He fought Thai communist insurgents in the 1960s, and later fended off incursions from Burmese troops and ethnic Wa guerrillas.

He expressed his displeasure at the May 1992 uprising, in which many civilians were killed, and campaigned tirelessly for a more modern, accountable army.

Becoming a commander in 1997, he again prioritised the fight against corruption and rights violations - and was seen as a friend to Burmese refugees for the part he played in allowing them to seek refuge in Thailand.

In the late 1990s, Gen Surayud clashed with Mr Thaksin, who wanted to increase business ties with the Burmese military leaders. He was sidelined to the post of supreme commander, a ceremonial rather than influential position.

After leaving the army in 2003, the devout Buddhist spent time as a monk, before being appointed to the Privy Council and becoming a senior adviser to the king.

'Appropriate choice'

Ironically, one of the main legacies from his long military career is his attempt to distance the army from politics. He is seen as pivotal in changing the military from a self-serving, often corrupt, group of individuals into a modern, professional organisation.

In fact Time Magazine once described him as "perhaps the most important Thai military figure of the modern era". There were worries that giving the position of prime minister to a former general might fuel accusations that the coup leaders had no intention of giving up power, despite their promise to hand over a civilian government.

But the army does not appear to see Gen Surayud as military at all. One of the six most senior coup leaders, Gen Winai Pattariya, said recently: "We really consider that a retired general is a civilian."

Political leaders seem to agree. Korn Chatikavanij, deputy general secretary of the opposition Democrat Party, recently described Gen Surayud as an "appropriate" choice. "What is important is domestic reconciliation, and Gen Surayud is ideal for that," he told The Associated Press. In the past, the former general has denied any intention of entering the political arena.

I Smirt, You Stooze, They Krump

A new book is published tomorrow called "I Smirt, You Stooze, They Krump". According to the PR blub

"Smirt" apparently describes people who flirt while they smoke outside their office buildings or pubs

"Stooze" is a verb describing the practice of taking advantage of introductory interest free periods offered by credit card companies, to borrow money that is then invested elsewhere for profit.

and

"Krump" is to dance, sometimes wearing face paint, in a fast and aggressive style, mimicking a fight but remaining non-violent.

Anyone who wants to pick up a copy can see it here on Amazon

Another 3 points for Reading

This trip to Upton Park obviously came at the right time with West Ham struggling to find any sort of form. Reading smashed a goal in after two minutes and walked away with all three points taking them to thirteen in all and in seventh place in the Premiership just three points off the top. Reading fans will have been delighted after Alan Pardew ditched them a couple of years ago. According to my son who was at the game Pardew got some stick from the Reading fans but Tevez got even more with the fans singing "You are just a fat Maradona". Harsh - I am sure he and West Ham will come good at some point soon but meanwhile Reading have the three points in the bank.

Edited to add this link to the report in The Guardian